SMC Update Week Ending 8-25-23 Recorded 8-26-23

08/26/2023


Comments (22)
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brian1469
brian1469

Thanks Peter! Tough week to figure out with month end and going into labor day. Prepared for anything this week.

We did get another clue for the very bearish case going forward this week. I believe the new trade settlement mechanism by the BRICS and eventual abandoning of the US Treasury market is going heat up the trade war. For us to have a 1929-1932 collapse I believe you need a Banking Crisis which we have and the BTFP facility which is papering over it is still expanding each week so the banking crisis is getting worse not better. You also need a catalyst to hurt global trade like Smoot Hawley did in 1930. I believe the BRICS system is going to fracture global trade way further than we have experienced up until now. Then you finally need a collapse of asset prices. This is the missing piece and I still don't know if we have seen the top for sure but we are getting close. Just random thoughts but the script is defiantly starting to leave clues.

I found this documentary about those years excellent to see the global side of the great depression.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFd813RAnd8&t=1551s&ab_channel=Timeline-WorldHistoryDocumentaries

I agree with Rick Rule here on the BRICS+ that it is going to effect Dollar Hegemony and trade. The goldbugs ran with it as a currency but that really doesn't look like it has any truth to it.

https://youtu.be/KZwMjd0e_CU?t=2184

Last updated

John_cash9154493
John_cash9154493

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter! Tough week to figure out with month end and going into labor day. Prepared for anything this week.

We did get another clue for the very bearish case going forward this week. I believe the new trade settlement mechanism by the BRICS and eventual abandoning of the US Treasury market is going heat up the trade war. For us to have a 1929-1932 collapse I believe you need a Banking Crisis which we have and the BTFP facility which is papering over it is still expanding each week so the banking crisis is getting worse not better. You also need a catalyst to hurt global trade like Smoot Hawley did in 1930. I believe the BRICS system is going to fracture global trade way further than we have experienced up until now. Then you finally need a collapse of asset prices. This is the missing piece and I still don't know if we have seen the top for sure but we are getting close. Just random thoughts but the script is defiantly starting to leave clues.

I found this documentary about those years excellent to see the global side of the great depression.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFd813RAnd8&t=1551s&ab_channel=Timeline-WorldHistoryDocumentaries

I agree with Rick Rule here on the BRICS+ that it is going to effect Dollar Hegemony and trade. The goldbugs ran with it as a currency but that really doesn't look like it has any truth to it.

https://youtu.be/KZwMjd0e_CU?t=2184

https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1695620681382117475?s=20

Last updated

John_cash9154493
John_cash9154493

More updates like today is the way to go. Dreamers don't make money or they get anything right.

Could be more upside left before another leg down

brian1469
brian1469

John_cash9154493 said:

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter! Tough week to figure out with month end and going into labor day. Prepared for anything this week.

We did get another clue for the very bearish case going forward this week. I believe the new trade settlement mechanism by the BRICS and eventual abandoning of the US Treasury market is going heat up the trade war. For us to have a 1929-1932 collapse I believe you need a Banking Crisis which we have and the BTFP facility which is papering over it is still expanding each week so the banking crisis is getting worse not better. You also need a catalyst to hurt global trade like Smoot Hawley did in 1930. I believe the BRICS system is going to fracture global trade way further than we have experienced up until now. Then you finally need a collapse of asset prices. This is the missing piece and I still don't know if we have seen the top for sure but we are getting close. Just random thoughts but the script is defiantly starting to leave clues.

I found this documentary about those years excellent to see the global side of the great depression.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFd813RAnd8&t=1551s&ab_channel=Timeline-WorldHistoryDocumentaries

I agree with Rick Rule here on the BRICS+ that it is going to effect Dollar Hegemony and trade. The goldbugs ran with it as a currency but that really doesn't look like it has any truth to it.

https://youtu.be/KZwMjd0e_CU?t=2184

https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1695620681382117475?s=20

My point is not how much the dollar reserves there are right now. There are a ton as that graph shows. My point is 50% of the world's population and and probably 75% of the worlds resources are going to have a new system and that they can bypass the dollar and the treasury market. Bigger concern is the treasury market and our trillion dollar deficits we have to fund.

China and Saudi's are going be the leaders of this. That is going to heat up the trade war and trade wars are bad for stock markets.

Dubai is going to be the commodities trading hub. Here is an FT article on it already happening

https://www.ft.com/content/1e9ced86-795c-433e-a29f-082850cebed3

To me it looks like change is coming and usually markets don't like that.

I see no way this being a smooth transition and I see it effecting trade

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

NEW DRINKING GAME

EACH TIME PETER SAYS " SIGNIFICANTLY "

TAKE A SHOT of your favorite

Plastered by 10mins in...

brian1469
brian1469

Looks like the NQ is hanging on by a thread to its lower projection need to move down pretty good from here for it not to be invalidated today it looks like

Last updated

daniel039209
daniel039209

brian1469 said:

Looks like the NQ is hanging on by a thread to its lower projection need to move down pretty good from here for it not to be invalidated today it looks like

i wish peter would include "how high we can trade and STILL maintain a negative posture" i can never tell on his 30 min 45 min then daily then the IWM then the DJIA...looks like NDX could trade up another 150 on top of todays 108 and fridays 140 pt goin. 15,150-15200? resistance? thats a lot of pain , actually losses to sit through while anticipating the lows he has projected

brian1469
brian1469

daniel039209 said:

brian1469 said:

Looks like the NQ is hanging on by a thread to its lower projection need to move down pretty good from here for it not to be invalidated today it looks like

i wish peter would include "how high we can trade and STILL maintain a negative posture" i can never tell on his 30 min 45 min then daily then the IWM then the DJIA...looks like NDX could trade up another 150 on top of todays 108 and fridays 140 pt goin. 15,150-15200? resistance? thats a lot of pain , actually losses to sit through while anticipating the lows he has projected

Hate to say it but I don't think there is much you can do about it especially with the ATR we are experiencing it seems high for vol being so low.

daniel039209
daniel039209

brian1469 ....true

brian1469
brian1469

daniel039209 said:

brian1469 ....true

I'd say this last rally here makes it pretty hard to hit. Feels like this week is just going to be market makers pushing things around.

That was just a straight up 80 points in 30 minutes. I mean seriously that looks like the fakest move ever almost 100 NQ points between 12:30 -1:10 cst on the 1 min chart

Last updated

fast3777
fast3777

NVDA the mania is still alive and dominates this market. Until things don't,which when the bus stalls on the tracks...the wreck will be historic. Don't know when it will turn down but the UST bond will lead the way.

fast3777
fast3777

MA Mastercard is at a ATH and the weekly from 2007 shows 3 waves up...CC debt at historic levels and a vast number of Americans have maxxed out their cards to survive. This won't be like 1929....America has never been this illiquid and broke. The next leg down should usher in a collapse that nobody wants. The Fed will be responsible. This buy back market....they will pull their bids just like they did with AAPL.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

Blah blah talk of despair and collapse and this and that and Mastercard

Let me tell you something easy to remember

Ready??

INFLATE OR DIE

there..

The Fed balance sheet will be 20 trillion in 4 years

Deal with it

LONG 4532 next stop

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

WEEK LEADING UP TO LABOR DAY PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE.. anyone wanna guess if BOOOLISH OR BEARISH?? History says .. well why doesn't Peter look it up.

Huffy huffy Huffman should unless it's a Gann square of 9 panic box with 860000 days from the day Popeye first aired on a Thursday before a new moon after a rainstorm .. Loonies

ericoh792283
ericoh792283

Can’t stop laughing at these bears. It seems like they sold their soul to the bear. They want things to go so bad. As long as Peter and these bear wants apocalyptic bear market, bulls will continue to run. As they r fueling this bull run. Lol

brian1469
brian1469

Bad day for the bears lost the 10 EMA, Failed the Bearish Engulfing and lost the downside projection.

We will get 7/8 on the ES and NQ tomorrow by just going sideways. They shouldn't be that high up though

So it looks like up into the end of the month and see what happens on the jobs report on Friday if it is up through Labor day.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

/ NQ has higher projection ( NEW ) on the 7/8 REMEMBER PETER SAYS NEW PROJECTIONS " TRUMP " older ones 15158 - 15385

/ES has higher projection ( NEW ) on the 7/8 REMEMBER PETER SAYS NEW PROJECTIONS " TRUMP " older ones 4488- ++

But THERE IS BURNING BRIDGES AND MASSIVE DEBT AND OH MY GET OUT !!!! RUN AND MASTERCARD HIT A HIGH AND SQUARE OF 9 GANN AND ELLIOT

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

brian1469 said:

Bad day for the bears lost the 10 EMA, Failed the Bearish Engulfing and lost the downside projection.

We will get 7/8 on the ES and NQ tomorrow by just going sideways. They shouldn't be that high up though

So it looks like up into the end of the month and see what happens on the jobs report on Friday if it is up through Labor day.

WE GOT THE 7/8 look at projections

I told you MONDAY follow thru ./.

XXSPOWER127
XXSPOWER127

$VXX , $UVXY, $VIX ALL VOLATILITY PRODUCTS HAVE A LARGE DOWNSIDE PROJECTION

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN ????

LMAO

SMALLHANDS

brian1469
brian1469

XXSPOWER127 said:

brian1469 said:

Bad day for the bears lost the 10 EMA, Failed the Bearish Engulfing and lost the downside projection.

We will get 7/8 on the ES and NQ tomorrow by just going sideways. They shouldn't be that high up though

So it looks like up into the end of the month and see what happens on the jobs report on Friday if it is up through Labor day.

WE GOT THE 7/8 look at projections

I told you MONDAY follow thru ./.

Yep got the move up. Good to know we already got the 7/8's I was just looking at the app

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